T-Bonds Total Return (Inflation-Adjusted)

Long-term (i.e., 20+ year) Treasury bonds are down significantly in the 2020s.

The magnitude of the decline is clearly a break from the past.

For example, T-bonds trended higher and with relatively low volatility from 1990 to 2005.

From 2005 to 2020, the gains continued albeit at a slower pace and with increased volatility.

Over the past three and a half years, however, it’s been quite a different story.

The trend has been down — sharply down.

However, ongoing concerns over a slowing economy which could lead to lower inflation and interest rates have helped T-bonds rally to a point where they are currently testing resistance (red line) of its current downtrend channel.

T-Bonds Total Return Inflation-Adjusted