Today’s chart takes a look at the average pre-election year since 1900.
As today’s chart illustrates, the Dow (blue line) has so far significantly underperformed the Dow’s average pre-election year (orange line).
Point of interest…
So far in 2023, the market has declined significantly during periods when the average pre-election year is weak.
Looking forward…
If the market is to follow the average pre-election year from here, the market will need to rally into July.
How often has the Dow gained during a pre-election year?
Since 1900, the Dow has ended an election year on the positive side 24 out of 30 times for a win rate of 80%.
What was the biggest gain by the Dow during a pre-election year?
The biggest election year gain since 1900 occurred in 1915 when the Dow gained 81.7%.
What was the Dow's biggest loss during a pre-election year?
The Dow’s biggest loss during a presidential election year since 1900 was 52.7% in 1931.
How did the Dow perform during the most recent pre-election year?
For the calendar year of 2019, the Dow was up 22.3%.