Dow Average Post-Election Year vs Dow 2021

Today’s chart takes a look at the average post-election year.

The chart illustrates that the Dow’s average post-election year (orange line) tends to follow a pattern of a choppy first two months, a spring rally into early May, a correction into the second half of June, a rally into August followed by a correction.

The Dow’s current post- election year pattern (blue line)…

Rather typical.

Looking forward.

If the market continues to generally follow the path of the average post-election year, the environment for stocks will be challenging into November.

Dow Average Post-Election Year vs Dow 2021

How often has the Dow gained during a post-election year?

Since 1900, the Dow has ended an election year on the positive side 16 out of 30 times for an average win rate of 53%.

What was the biggest gain by the Dow during a post-election year?

The biggest election year gain since 1900 occurred in 1933 when the Dow gained 66.7%.

What was the Dow's biggest loss during a post-election year?

The Dow’s biggest loss during a presidential election year since 1900 was 32.8% in 1937.

How did the Dow perform during the most recent post-election year?

For the calendar year of 2017, the Dow was up 25.1%.