With the post-election year now coming to a close, today’s chart takes a look at the average mid-term election year.
As today’s chart illustrates, the Dow’s average mid-term election year (blue line) underperforms the Dow’s average year (orange line).
Most of that underperformance occurred from mid-April to the end of September.
As the mid-term election approached (early November), the market began to regain its footing.
How often has the Dow gained during a post-election year?
Since 1900, the Dow has ended an election year on the positive side 17 out of 30 times for an average win rate of 56%.
What was the biggest gain by the Dow during a post-election year?
The biggest election year gain since 1900 occurred in 1954 when the Dow gained 44%.
What was the Dow's biggest loss during a post-election year?
The Dow’s biggest loss during a presidential election year since 1900 was 33.8% in 1930.
How did the Dow perform during the most recent post-election year?
For the calendar year of 2018, the Dow was down 5.6%.