Dow Average Election Year vs Dow 2020

Earlier this year, stock market performance was anything but average.

Not altogether surprising considering the emergence of a historic pandemic.

More recently, however, the stock market has reverted back to following a path that is similar (albeit in a more volatile fashion) to that of the average election year.

If the stock market were to continue to generally follow average election year performance, investors could expect some choppiness over the next few weeks followed by some semblance of a year-end rally.

Dow Average Election Year 1900-2016 vs Dow 2020

How often has the Dow gained during a presidential election year?

Since 1900, the Dow has ended an election year on the positive side 21 out of 30 times for an average win rate of 70%.

What was the biggest gain by the Dow during a presidential election year?

The biggest election year gain since 1900 occurred in 1928 when the Dow gained 48.2%.

What was the Dow's biggest loss during a presidential election year?

The Dow’s biggest loss during a presidential election year since 1900 was 33.8% in 2008.

How did the Dow perform during the most recent presidential election year?

For the calendar year of 2016, the Dow was up 13.4%.