S&P 500 3-month Gain vs AAII Bulls

Inflation, rising rates, war, pandemic — not much to be optimistic about.

Investors agree — less than 20% are bullish right now.

What does this mean for the stock market?

To help answer that question, today’s chart presents six bullish sentiment ranges versus the ensuing average S&P 500 three-month gain.


The stock market has performed better following relatively low optimism.

On average.

S&P 500 3-month Gain vs AAII Bulls

What is the meaning of investor sentiment?

Investor sentiment refers to the average outlook investors have towards a particular market or security.

What was the highest percentage of AAII bulls?

The highest percentage of AAII bullish sentiment was 75% and occurred on January 6, 2000 right at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

What was the lowest percentage of AAII bulls?

The lowest percentage of AAII bulls was 12% on November 16, 1990.