S&P 500 6-month Gain vs AAII Bears

Inflation, rising rates, war — not much to be optimistic about.

Investors agree — more than 60% are bearish right now.

What does this mean for the stock market?

To help answer that question, today’s chart presents five bearish sentiment ranges versus the ensuing average S&P 500 six-month gain.


The stock market has performed better following relatively high pessimism.

On average.

S&P 500 6-month Gain vs AAII Bears

What is the meaning of investor sentiment?

Investor sentiment refers to the average outlook investors have towards a particular market or security.

What was the highest percentage of AAII bears?

The highest percentage of AAII bearish sentiment was 70% and occurred on March 5, 2009 near the end of the financial crisis bear market.

What was the lowest percentage of AAII bears?

The lowest percentage of AAII bears was 6% on August 21, 1987 shortly before the stock market crash of October 1987.