What’s in store for the job market / economy?

Today’s chart helps answer that question by illustrating the six-month rate of change of U.S. temporary help services (temp jobs) since 1990.

Notice that when temp jobs declined by more than 4% over six months, the economy was in or soon to be in a recession.

A leading indicator of sorts.

So while the headline unemployment number just came in at a relatively low 3.4%, underneath the surface, there is some slowing.

Something to watch going forward.