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For some perspective on the future state of the US economy, today's chart presents the ECRI Leading Index (a composite of seven indicators chosen for their ability to signal both the beginning and the end of economic recessions). Since 1970, a significant downturn in the index of leading economic indicators has preceded the beginning of a recession by about ten months; a significant upturn in the index has preceded the end of a recession by an average of two months. The exception to this was following the financial crisis as the economy worked to realign some historic imbalances. After things had a chance to settle down, the ECRI Leading Index resumed with a fairly strong but choppy upward trend. Over the past four months, the ECRI Leading Index has surged to a new post-financial crisis high -- a positive sign for the economy over the near-term.

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Quote of the Day
"Better to remain silent and the thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." - Abraham Lincoln

Events of the Day
June 16, 2016 - US Open golf tournament begins (ends June 19th)
June 19, 2016 - Father's Day
June 20, 2016 - First Day of Summer (North America)
June 27, 2016 - Wimbledon tennis tournament begins (ends July 10th)

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